Demographic Transition Model
Developed by Warren Thompson in 1929
Premise (what is the model supposed to explain):
a sequence of changes in the relationship between birth rates and death rates
Function (how/when is the model used):
understand population changes and policies in MDCs and LDCs around the world over time
Strength:
- explains the relationship between natural increase rate and population growth
- easy to apply to all countries (classified into 4 stages)
- some countries are going through the changes right now
Weakness:
- doesn't have a time scale
- OVERSIMPLIFICATION; assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern of development
(= industrialization) and move through the stages step by step, from stage 1 to 4.
Effectiveness in field in past and today:
- applied to many western European countries in the past which went through industrialization
- becoming more ineffective these days as some countries are skipping stages (eg. African countries moving from S1 to S4 due to AIDS, malaria, etc.) and some are transforming stages rapidly in comparison to past European countries
- census data may be incorrect
- migration is not taken into account when counting total population
Premise (what is the model supposed to explain):
a sequence of changes in the relationship between birth rates and death rates
Function (how/when is the model used):
understand population changes and policies in MDCs and LDCs around the world over time
Strength:
- explains the relationship between natural increase rate and population growth
- easy to apply to all countries (classified into 4 stages)
- some countries are going through the changes right now
Weakness:
- doesn't have a time scale
- OVERSIMPLIFICATION; assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern of development
(= industrialization) and move through the stages step by step, from stage 1 to 4.
Effectiveness in field in past and today:
- applied to many western European countries in the past which went through industrialization
- becoming more ineffective these days as some countries are skipping stages (eg. African countries moving from S1 to S4 due to AIDS, malaria, etc.) and some are transforming stages rapidly in comparison to past European countries
- census data may be incorrect
- migration is not taken into account when counting total population
